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A | 当前，百年变局加速演变，国际形势变乱交织。 A US federal grand jury has indicted one current and one former Department of Homeland Security (DHS) worker in connection with an alleged scheme to silence critics of the Chinese government, in which a total of five people were involved, according to the Justice Department.,The indictment revealed on Thursday that DHS employee Craig Miller and Derrick Taylor, a retired DHS agent working as a private investigator, are accused of accessing and providing information about Chinese activists from a restricted government database to two more defendants, who then used the records to target the victims.,Beijing Says China Ready to Work With US Partners on Improving Bilateral Relations30 October 2020, 11:47 GMT,US prosecutors claimed that Fan “Frank” Liu, Qiang “Jason” Sun, and Matthew Ziburis perpetrated a campaign to “spy on, harass and discredit” dissidents living in the US and to crush criticism of Beijing.,According to the prosecutors, an unspecified artist in California was among the “dissidents” allegedly targeted by the defendants. The prosecutors argued that Ziburus posed as a dealer interested in buying the painter’s artwork, and secretly installed surveillance cameras and GPS devices at the artist’s studio and in his car. The defendants purportedly planned to destroy the dissident’s artwork.,Referring to the indictment, Matthew Olsen, Assistant US Attorney General for National Security, pledged that he and his colleagues “will defend the rights of people in the United States to engage in free speech and political expression, including views the PRC [People’s Republic of China] government wants to silence.”,“As charged, these individuals aided agents of a foreign government in seeking to suppress dissenting voices who have taken refuge here. The defendants include two sworn law enforcement officers who chose to forsake their oaths and violate the law,” Olsen added.,The remarks followed the Chinese Foreign Ministry describing the US as “the biggest threat to world peace, stability and development.” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijan told reporters that “the relevant US politician has been playing up the so-called China threat to smear and attack China.”,“We urge this US official to have the right perspective, see China’s developments in an objective and reasonable manner, and stop spreading lies and stop making irresponsible remarks," Zhao stressed.,He referred to FBI Director Christopher Wray earlier delivering a speech at the MI5 building in London, where he warned of the "complex, enduring and pervasive danger" that China purportedly poses to both the US and the UK.,China Against Defining Relations With US as 'Competition'7 October 2021, 08:24 GMT,Wray said that the Chinese government “poses an even more serious threat to Western businesses than even many sophisticated business people realize,” arguing that the "danger" from China is "complex and growing.”,“The Chinese government is trying to shape the world by interfering in our politics, and those of our allies. All of that is to say – China poses a far more complex and pervasive threat to businesses than even the most sophisticated company leaders realize,” the FBI director pointed out.,He spoke after America’s National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) accused China of seeking to “exploit US subnational relationships to influence US policies and advance PRC geopolitical interests.”。
B | 在充满不确定性的环境下，国际油价风险对国内实体经济和金融体系构成严重的外溢冲击，风险防范形势日趋严峻。立足全球不确定性背景，解析国际油价冲击对中国股市的影响机制，已成为保障能源安全与维护金融稳定的紧迫现实课题。 中国矿业大学丁志华教授、刘振华副教授团队所著《不确定性视角下国际油价对中国股市的影响研究》一书，聚焦石油金融前沿问题，从不确定性新视角系统揭示国际油价对中国股市的影响机制，为政府和监管部门识别国际油价风险传导路径、完善风险治理提供了重要参考。 纵观全书，其特色与创新主要体现在以下三个方面： 一是理论视角新颖。该书创新性提出了经济政策不确定性在原油和股市联动关系中兼具内在渠道和外生冲击双重属性理论，区分了经济政策不确定性的内外部来源，揭示了内外部经济政策不确定性在油价冲击影响股市关系中的差异化作用机理，拓展了原油与股市联动关系的理论视角。 二是研究内容丰富。
C | 该书从整体市场和行业股市两个维度出发，不仅识别了不同经济政策不确定性水平下原油与股市信息溢出的关键路径、关键行业、关联结构及动态演变，还考察了不确定性条件下油价信息对股市波动的预测能力，丰富了原油与股市影响关系的研究内容。 三是研究方法前沿。该书综合运用计量经济学、管理科学、网络拓扑理论等多学科理论，提出了包含马尔科夫区制转移过程的混频数据模型，能够识别不同市场状态下政策不确定性的异质性影响，丰富了政策评估和风险管理研究的方法工具。 全书结构合理、思路清晰、数据翔实、论证严密，提出了新理论，发展了新方法，取得了新成果，是能源金融交叉领域的一项高质量研究成果。该书的出版，不仅丰富完善了石油金融风险管理的理论体系，也为中国防范国际油价冲击风险、保障能源安全提供了有力的决策参考。（作者 周德群 系南京航空航天大学二级教授）。
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